Banking asset quality by Edelweiss

By Edelweiss

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There are three primary reasons for this change: (1) with sharp pick up in revenue growth, companies were flush with internal funds and required limited working capital. Improved working capital management has resulted in net working capital days reducing from over 100 days in the 1990s to ~20 by FY07; (2) credit off-take in the infrastructure sector tends to be for longer duration; and (3) working capital, despite being short term, actually worked as long term funding for companies. Hence, banks could have converted some of the working capital lending in to long term funding.

Table 31: ICRA ABS pools analysed Jun-04 Number of pools Total amount (INR mn) Mar-05 32 Dec-05 45 62,939 119,582 56 161,639 Sep-07 111 342,947 Number of pools Citibank NA/ Citicorp Finance 3 4 5 3 Cholamandalam Finance 7 8 6 1 GE Capital 2 3 4 7 HDFC Bank 2 3 4 5 ICICI Bank 9 19 26 58 Sundaram Finance 1 1 1 9 1 3 6 8 9 25 SREI Infrastructure Finance Tata Motors Financial Services Source: CRISIL, ICRA, Fitch, Edelweiss research Our analysis revealed that, unlike corporate loan book where, delinquency tends to be lumpy in nature, retail loan slippages behave like an ‘inverted U’ - deterioration picks up in the first few quarters before peaking and steadily tapers down in the final stages when recoveries kick in.

Banks had eased their lending standards by increasing LTV (loan to value), IIR (installment to income) and tenor to remain competitive and meet increased retail credit demand (boosted by tax incentives, growing consumer wealth and other structural drivers), which is now leading to higher delinquencies. Moreover, many banks went up the risk curve and ventured into riskier unseasoned and non-collateralised loan portfolio (personal loans, credit cards and two wheelers) as competition was rising in asset backed products and visibility was improving on strong growth in personal income.

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